The15thMeetingofForeignMinistersofChina,Russia,andIndiawasheldonMondayinNewDelhi.Inthewakeofthe?Doklamstandoff?betweenChinaandIndiathisyear,andasIndiadrawsclosertotheUS,withRussiaengaginginmilitarycooperationwithPakistan,observershaveexpressedpessimismoverthetrilateralmeeting.
TheUSbecametheonlysuperpoweraftertheColdWar.Withitsincreasingeconomiccloutinthe1990sandvictoryintheGulfWar,theworldseemedtoenteraunipolarmodedominatedbytheUS.?
AsidefromtheUSanditsallies,thereareothermajorpowerslikeRussia,China,India-somewishtomaintaintheirmajorpowerstatus,someaspiretobecomeone.Withtheneedtodealwithpost-ColdWarinternationalrelations,promotethedemocratizationofinternationalrelations,advocateamultipolarworldorderandestablishnewglobalpoliticalandeconomicorders,thethreecountrieshavesimilarstancesonmanyinternationalissues,andtheyfeltitnecessarytocommunicateandcooperatewitheachother.?
InJanuary2001,afterGeorgeW.BushbecameUSpresident,powerpoliticsandunilateralismweregrowing.ItbroughtmorepressuretoChina,RussiaandIndia,leadingtoaninformalmeetingbetweentheforeignministersofthethreecountriesinSeptemberthenextyear.?
Onthemarginsofthe32ndG8summitin2006,theleadersofChina,RussiaandIndiaheldtheirfirsttrilateralsummit.?
Allsideswellunderstoodthecontradictionsbetweeneachotherandtherealityofinternationalpolitics,sotheychosetofollowanewrelationshipofnon-alignment,non-confrontationandnottargetingthirdparties.Themeetingismainlyachancetocommunicatestrategicallyaboutimportantinternationalissues.AftertheUSstartedthewarsinAfghanistanandIraq,thestancesofthethreecountriesweremuchthesame.?
DespitetheUS-Indiacloseness,thethreecountriesstillhavesimilarstancesontheIrannuclearissue,theAfghanissue,theSyrianconflict,theIsraeli-PalestinianconflictandthequotasoftheInternationalMonetaryFund.Economically,Russiaisabigenergysupplier,andChinaandIndiaarebigenergyconsumerswithrisingdemand,sotrilateralcooperationhasseensomesuccess.
Butwealsomustrealizethelimitationsofthetrilateralmeeting.Itisjustameetingbetweenforeignministersandtheleadersofthethreeonlymeetwitheachotheroninternationaloccasions.Thisindicatesitdoesnothavehighstatusindiplomacyandcannotbearmorefunctions.?
Themechanismcanprovideaplatformforbilateralcommunication,butbilateralconflictsshouldnotbedraggedintoit,otherwisethetrilateralmechanismwillbejeopardizedwithoutbilateralconflictsbeingaddressed.Themechanismcannotbeconsideredasineffectivejustbecauseitcannotsatisfyacertaincountry'sdemands,andcooperationamongthethreeonimportantareasofcommoninterestshouldnotbeimpeded.
Indiahasbenefitedagreatdealfromthemeeting.AsChinaandRussiaarebothpermanentmembersoftheUNSecurityCouncil,withChinathesecond-largesteconomyandRussiathesecond-largestmilitarypower,ithasraisedIndia'sinternationalstatusenormouslytojointhemeetingasitpursuesitsgoalofbecomingamajorpower.?
TopreventIndiafromgettingtooclosetoChinaandRussia,theUShastodrawIndiaintoitsorbit,whichliftedtheweightofIndiainUSdiplomacy.AsChina,RussiaandIndiaareallBRICSnations,andIndiaparticipatedintheShanghaiCooperationOrganization,thetrilateralsummitindeedhasraisedthestatusofIndiainthesetwoorganizations.?
WhileIndiaisengagedinthistrilateralmeeting,itisalsoholdingaministerial-leveltrilateraldialoguewiththeUSandJapan.ItrevealsIndia'sinterests-drivenpragmatism.ThelimitationsofcooperationbetweentheUSandIndiacanprovidepossibilitiesforcooperationbetweenChina,RussiaandIndia,whilethelimitationsofthethreedothesameforcooperationbetweentheUSandIndia.?
India'srecenttilttotheUShastriggereddoubtsfromChinaandRussia,anditmayhaveanegativeeffectonthesupportthatChinaandRussiacouldofferIndiaonagloballevel,suchassupportingIndiainitsbidtobecomeapermanentmemberoftheUNSecurityCouncil.Russia'schangeinattitudeovermilitarycooperationwithPakistanisanobvioussignal.?
AstheUSunderformerpresidentBarackObamadraggedIndiaintoitsrebalancetotheAsia-Pacific,butexcludeditfromtheTrans-PacificPartnership,itshowedtheUSsupportedIndiajustoutofitsowninterests,butnotIndia's.ThecooperationbetweenChina,RussiaandIndiastillhaslargeroomtomaneuver,andIndiashouldfindabalanceinitsvacillatingdiplomacy.
LongXingchun?isaseniorresearchfellowatTheCharharInstituteanddirectoroftheCenterforIndianStudiesatChinaWestNormalUniversity.
Source:GlobalTimes,December11,2017
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